Two weeks before kickoff, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is not delivering the US tourism boom forecasters expected. US ESTA applications are reportedly down ~40% year over year while Canadian eTA applications are up ~35% (especially from British and French travellers), and ~80% of US host-city hotels report bookings below expectations. The stronger reading of the data is not that Canada is “stealing” the World Cup but that the US is missing its expected surge — with demand smaller, more cautious, and more spread out across Canada, Mexico, and late bookers than organizers planned for.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was supposed to be a tourism goldmine for the United States.
Forecasts projected millions of visitors, packed hotels, sold-out flights, and billions in economic impact. With 11 of the tournament’s 16 host cities in the United States, the expectation was simple: America would be the main beneficiary of the largest World Cup ever staged.
Two weeks before kickoff, the data tells a messier story.
A recent post from Sherpa flagged a striking trend. U.S. ESTA applications are reportedly down nearly 40% year over year, while Canadian eTA applications are up more than 35%, with a lot of that coming from British and French travellers.
If that holds up, it’s more than a travel story. It’s a signal that international visitors may be rethinking where they enter North America.
So the obvious question:
Is Canada stealing the World Cup?
Right now the answer seems to be no, not really. But something odd is going on.
What We Know
Several independent datasets suggest World Cup tourism demand is weaker than a lot of industry forecasts assumed.
An April survey from the American Hotel & Lodging Association found that nearly 80% of hotels across U.S. host cities reported bookings below expectations. In some markets, like Kansas City, the figure was closer to 90%. Hotel operators in Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Seattle and other host cities have reported booking levels that look like a normal summer, not a once-in-a-generation event.
Some industry observers have called the World Cup a “non-event” for many hotel markets so far. FIFA has reportedly released large room blocks that were originally held back for tournament demand.
Broader U.S. tourism trends have softened too.
Statistics Canada reports that Canadian travel to the United States has been falling for more than a year. January 2026 trips were down 22% year over year, February trips were down another 12.5%, and that fits a fourteen-month pattern. RBC Economics has documented similar declines, and mobile location analysis suggests visits by Canadians to U.S. metro areas may be down as much as 42%.
Put it together and the United States went into the World Cup period with a weaker international tourism market than expected.
The Case For Canada
This is where Sherpa’s observation gets interesting.
If international travellers are still coming to North America but steering around the United States, Canada should be seeing stronger inbound demand.
The reported jump in Canadian eTA applications, especially from Britain and France, points that way. Toronto and Vancouver host 13 World Cup matches, including knockout rounds, which makes them logical entry points for European visitors.
For a lot of travellers, flying into Canada and catching matches there might feel simpler or cheaper than building a trip centred on the United States.
The theory is plausible. The evidence is thin.
The Missing Data
We haven’t actually seen proof that Canada is blowing past expectations.
To back up Sherpa’s thesis, you’d want to see things like big increases in international arrivals at Toronto Pearson and Vancouver airports, hotel occupancy in Toronto and Vancouver running ahead of forecasts, more transatlantic passenger traffic into Canada, and strong growth in visitor spending in Canadian host cities.
None of those numbers have shown up publicly yet.
And some analysts point to rising flight bookings and solid ticket sales across multiple host markets, which suggests the demand exists but may just be arriving later than people expected.
The More Interesting Possibility
There’s a third explanation worth taking seriously.
Maybe Canada isn’t stealing the World Cup from the United States. Maybe neither country is getting the surge that was forecast.
Today’s data supports a simpler read: World Cup demand is real, but smaller, more cautious, and more spread out than organizers planned for.
Some visitors are probably choosing Canada. Some are choosing Mexico. Some are booking late. And some are just staying home.
My Take
The strongest thing today’s data actually supports isn’t that Canada is stealing the World Cup.
It’s that the United States isn’t getting the tourism boom a lot of people expected.
Whether Canada ends up being the winner of that shift should be clear over the next 30 to 60 days.
The indicators to watch are pretty straightforward: Toronto Pearson international arrivals, Vancouver international arrivals, hotel occupancy in both cities, U.S. host city hotel performance, and cross-border travel between Canada and the United States.
If those move sharply in Canada’s favour, Sherpa may be right. If they don’t, 2026 might end up being a reminder that even the biggest sporting event on earth can’t guarantee a tourism boom.
Sometimes the story isn’t where people decide to go. It’s where they decide not to.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many 2026 World Cup matches are being played in Canada?
Canada is hosting 13 matches across Toronto and Vancouver, including knockout-round games. The 2026 tournament has 16 host cities in total across Canada, the United States (11), and Mexico, making it the largest World Cup ever staged.
Are US ESTA applications really down ahead of the World Cup?
Per Sherpa, US ESTA applications are reportedly down close to 40% year over year, while Canadian eTA applications are up more than 35% — with a meaningful share of that increase coming from British and French travellers. Those numbers haven’t been independently confirmed by federal data yet, but they’re consistent with broader US inbound tourism softness.
What does the hotel data say about US World Cup demand?
An April American Hotel & Lodging Association survey found nearly 80% of hotels across US host cities reported bookings below expectations, with markets like Kansas City closer to 90% below. FIFA has reportedly released large held-back room blocks. Operators in Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle describe the booking pace as a normal summer, not a once-in-a-generation event.
Is Canada actually seeing more inbound World Cup demand?
Possibly, but the public evidence is thin. To confirm the thesis you’d want to see Toronto Pearson and Vancouver international arrivals running ahead of forecasts, host-city hotel occupancy outperforming, more transatlantic capacity, and stronger visitor spending. None of those numbers have shown up publicly yet.
Why has Canadian travel to the US been declining?
Statistics Canada has tracked a fourteen-month decline in Canadian trips to the US — January 2026 down 22% year over year, February down a further 12.5%. RBC Economics has documented similar trends, and mobile-location analysis suggests Canadian visits to US metro areas may be down as much as 42%. The result is that the US entered the World Cup window with a weaker international tourism baseline than forecasters assumed.
What indicators will tell us whether Canada is actually winning the tourism shift?
Five to watch over the next 30 to 60 days: Toronto Pearson international arrivals, Vancouver international arrivals, hotel occupancy in both Canadian host cities, US host-city hotel performance, and cross-border travel volume between Canada and the United States. If those move sharply in Canada’s favour, the “Canada is stealing the World Cup” thesis gets real support. If they don’t, the more likely read is that the surge simply didn’t materialize anywhere.